Image: Combined physical climate risk at Olympic venues - EarthScan
The 2024 Summer Olympics are starting today. With the Seine finally being clean enough to swim in, Paris and other French cities are putting the final touches on the venues and event preparation.
Thus, we worked with Mitiga’s science and product teams to answer the following question: Are the Olympic Games venues across France ready to face current and future climate risks? Using our on-demand climate risk analysis platform EarthScan and our bespoke risk models, the short answer is no.
In 2024, 3 in 4 Olympic venues are already facing significant heat stress risk
We have already been warned that the Paris 2024 Games could be the hottest Olympics in history. In fact, temperatures in Europe are rising twice as fast as the global average, placing cities across the continent at the forefront of heat-related climate risks. Since the last time Paris hosted the Olympics in 1924, average summer temperatures in the city have risen 5.5°C while the number of days with temperatures higher than 30°C is three times more frequent.
What is more, urban centers in Toulouse, Lyon, and Paris record temperature differences between the citiy centers and their suburbs that can reach 8 to 10°C. Given the limited lifespan of most infrastructure, cities must adapt to ensure their resilience to a climate that is already significantly different than it was when their infrastructures were originally built.
Thus, it comes as no surprise to see that according to EarthScan, more than 75% of the Olympic venues are already facing significant exposure to Combined physical risk. EarthScan Combined physical risk describes how an asset, portfolio, company or industry is exposed to, and impacted by, climate risks across multiple physical climate hazards such as heat stress, wind risk, and flooding.
By 2050, climate risk will accelerate under the business-as-usual scenario
By mid-century, climate risk at Olympics venues will significantly increase, with the Combined climate risk of all 31 venues in metropolitan France rating ‘D’ on EarthScan. This means that if infrastructure is not properly adapted, those assets will be increasingly vulnerable to extreme heat exposure.
By the end of the century, all venues will require urgent action to address excessive heat stress. While it is hard to fully grasp what the economic impact will be, climate-related events in France already have an estimated cost of 70 billion euros and are expected to double by 2050.
Heat wave days could increase from 3 to 32 by the end of the century
According to EarthScan, extreme temperatures could become the norm for a full month by the end of the century. France is projected to continue to experience an exponential rise in heat stress, consequently increasing drought, as rainfall deficits become more frequent.
The climate in France has already changed, with maximum temperatures having risen by almost 2°C since the 1970's. Similarly, heat wave days have doubled, becoming more common due to anthropogenic activities.
The 2003, 2009, and more recently the 2019 heat episodes are increasingly becoming the new normal in Western and Central Europe. Under the SSP5-85 scenario, which represents the upper boundary of the range of scenarios used in IPCC, extreme temperatures in Paris could rise by 5°C by 2050 and by 10 deg at the end of the century. Increased heat stress will severely impact the country’s agricultural and energy sectors. From 2020 to 2050, the cost of weather-related events in certain French departments is expected to multiply by five.
Paris, a (literal) hot spot: Mitiga’s Cooling Energy Demand Index
While the reduced recharge of groundwater might threaten crop production, water shortages in France could also have significant economic consequences on electricity production across the country. Why? Because France largely depends on its rivers for cooling its nuclear power plants and operating its hydroelectric plants.
Prolonged high temperatures during the summer months are increasing cooling energy demand. At the same time, the energy is also experiencing heightened shortages due to water-cooling constraints on power plants. In 2022, heating and cooling demand made up around 20% of total electricity consumption in France.
Mitiga’s Cooling Energy Demand Index has been developed to provide a seasonal, highly granular forecast of energy consumption. It helps city planners and companies in the real estate sector understand future energy demands linked to increases in temperature, at a 500-meter resolution. It helps our clients better optimize investment in building renovation and preserve green areas.
Our index illustrates that over the last 20 years, Paris has experienced an increased demand for cooling energy, particularly in areas with less vegetation due to the urban heat island effect. Our high-resolution Index indicates that the Olympics sites located at Les Invalides, the Eiffel Tower, and Bercy Arena, are the ones experiencing the highest rise in temperatures, and therefore the highest increase in cooling energy demand.
As large-scale events like the Olympic Games approach, one must wonder whether France is taking the proper measures to adapt to these changes, in addition to addressing the upcoming increase in energy demand with its current energy resources. This question becomes even more relevant when 3 out of 4 venues are already experiencing significant risks. If no adaptation measures are taken, the future remains uncertain. There is already evidence that the energy sector in Europe is feeling the impact of climate extremes.
Venues at most risk in Paris: Eiffel Tower, Pont Alexandre III, and Parc Urbain de la Concorde
As the most densely populated urban area of France, Paris is at the forefront of extreme climate events, potentially having the largest implications and impact on a national scale. Iconic and historically important venues and Paris landmarks, including Pont Alexandre III, Parc Urbain de la Concorde, and the Eiffel Tower, are at risk and require urgent action to adapt to heat stress and flooding according to EarthScan.
By 2050, our climate risk intelligence platform predicts that the Parc Urbain de la Concorde and Pont Alexandre III could reach maximum temperatures up to 41.5°C, two degrees higher than the current levels. Due to the urban heat island effect, districts with a higher proportion of paved ground, such as the 15th and Bercy districts, experience stronger heat stress. However, urban areas with trees experience a reduction in air temperature by 0.8°C on average, with peaks up to 7°C. Areas with abundant vegetation, trees, and parks, including the Bois de Boulogne and the Forêt domaniale de Meudon, enjoy cooler temperatures.
By the end of the century, Bordeaux Stadium will have half of its value at risk
However, when it comes to Combined Physical Risk, EarthScan shows it clearly: Bordeaux Stadium is the venue with the highest risk. Located in the southwest of the country, this stadium already requires immediate action to address flooding risk.
In the following decades, heat stress, along with drought and wildfire risk, will significantly increase. By mid-century, the number of heat wave days experienced in that location will almost triple. As a result, the percentage of Climate Value at Risk for this venue is projected to rise from 33% currently to nearly 50% by the end of the century. EarthScan's Climate Value-at-Risk (CVaR) is a metric that translates climate hazard exposure metrics into estimates of potential damage and losses to properties, or portfolios of properties, across different future climate scenarios.
Looking ahead
Integrating climate adaptation policies into urban development plans is intrinsic to building resilient and sustainable cities. As regulatory pressure to report climate change risks and opportunities increases, access to science-based insights becomes critical. EarthScan is a climate risk intelligence platform that enables people and organizations to analyze, report, and act upon the climate risk their assets face.
